Believe it or not, based on WMPoweruser’s calculations, Windows Phone will surpass the Blackberry platform not long after Thanksgiving. We’ve talked about plotted dominance before and didn’t quite come off as accurate, but this trajectory seems far more accurate. The summary here isn’t that Windows Phone is winning so much as Blackberry is really failing.
I have my doubts about the importance of the Windows Phone 8 update, but that’s something I wouldn’t mind being wrong about. Blackberry, once king dominant in the corporate space, but also pretty big in the consumer space as well, is tumbling violently and the removal of its two co-CEOs earlier this year was probably not the best signal that they have a great plan on deck. Blackberry’s radical new Blackberry 10 OS, which reminds me much of webOS’s success and failure, won’t launch until next year, so everyone’s stuck on rapidly aging tech until then. It makes sense that maybe they begin to load up on other peoples’ OS, perhaps Android or even Windows Phone, before the company completely disintegrates.
Microsoft has been trying very hard over the past two years to make their OS popular and while we enjoy their recent phones and updates, they just haven’t done anything that’s captured the world’s collective imagination. This is going to be a very interesting slapfest for a distant third place against Android and iOS and it’s a shame that Microsoft didn’t win much of this on their own merits.